Brexit - Economy Predictions

With the EU referendum around the corner, the Bank of England has warned that Britain leaving the EU (Brexit) could force the nation into recession.

We previously looked at the effect Brexit could have on the British economy, but recent comments from the Governor of The Bank of England, Mark Carney, suggest that growth could slow, sterling could fall and unemployment could rise.

Assessing the Implications

Mr Carney has come under fire from a number of leading politicians, as they believe his comments are “irresponsible”. In response, a spokesman for Mr Carney issued the following statement:

"The Bank of England has not made, and will not make, any overall assessment of the economics of UK's membership of the European Union.

At the same time, the Bank must assess the implications of the UK's EU membership for our ability to achieve our core objectives and we have a duty to report our evidence-based judgements to Parliament and to the public. That is the fundamental standard of an open and transparent central bank.

Assessing and reporting major risks does not mean becoming involved in politics; rather it would be political to suppress important judgements which relate directly to the Bank's remits and which influence our policy actions."

The Bank’s most recent inflation report has predicted that economic growth would slow in the second quarter, but pick up later in the year. It was also forecast that inflation could reach 0.9% in September, provided the UK remains in the EU.

Brexit Negativity

Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund managing director, also had negative things to say about Brexit:

"We have looked at all the scenarios. We have done our homework and we haven’t found anything positive to say about a Brexit vote.”

Whilst there remains a significant amount of uncertainty it is very clear that whatever the outcome of the vote, Britain will still be open for business. More information on property predictions following Brexit can be found on The Guardian website.